Firm inflation expectations, wage and price setting

Last registered on September 15, 2025
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Firm inflation expectations, wage and price setting
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016779
Initial registration date
September 15, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
September 15, 2025, 9:56 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Switzerland
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Michael Lamla
Affiliation
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Anne Kathrin Funk
PI Affiliation
Swiss National Bank
PI Name
Sarah Lein
PI Affiliation
University of Basel
PI Name
Klaus Abberger
PI Affiliation
ETH Zurich
PI Name
Stefanie Siegrist
PI Affiliation
ETH Zurich
PI Name
Chamuel Zbinden
PI Affiliation
Stockholm University

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2025-09-15
End date
2025-10-31
Keywords
Firms & Productivity
Additional Keywords
Monetary Economics, Inflation expectations, Wages, Prices
JEL code(s)
E24, E31, E52
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial is based on or builds upon one or more prior RCTs.
Abstract
In this study we investigate the interaction of firms’ price and wage setting behaviour and their inflation expectations. This wave is conducted to provide increase general validity of our previous RCT and control for additional aspects (e.g. cost expectations). In particular, we study how inflation expectations are passed through into prices and wages. While theoretically there is a broad consensus about the relevance of the price setting of firms for inflation as well as economic activity, we know relatively little about how and to what extent firms build their inflation expectations into their prices and wages. We analyse these questions using a new firm-level survey with an RCT design that we conduct in Switzerland. Switzerland provides an ideal setting as it has a history of low and stable inflation and a flexible labor market with a low degree of wage indexation. Besides eliciting firm specific variables, and expectations about prices and wages we provide firms with information treatments and scenarios. Treatments in this study are used to either allude to forecasts at different horizons. We hope that we will be able to provide new insights on the role of expectations for firms’ decision making.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Abberger, Klaus et al. 2025. "Firm inflation expectations, wage and price setting." AEA RCT Registry. September 15. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16779-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2025-09-15
Intervention End Date
2025-10-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
wage expectations 1 year ahead, price expectations 1 year ahead, inflation expectations, 1 year ahead and 5 years ahead, cost expectations 1 year ahead
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The survey participants are representatives from Swiss firms, which are invited to participate in an online survey. The firms are sampled according to industry classification (NOGA) and size (full time employees).
In this online survey, we first elicit inflation expectations, and firms’ expectations about their own wages and prices, in addition to collecting information about the firms’ price and wage setting processes. After this, firms are randomly selected into groups where different information is provided. Information that is provided is the most recent inflation forecast of the Swiss National Bank for the short run (1 year ahead) and the medium run (3-5 years ahead).

After the information treatment, they are asked whether they would like to adjust their previously voiced expectations in light of the information treatment provided.
We plan to study how price and wage setting behavior interacts with inflation expectations and how changes in inflation expectations are passed through into prices and wages and to what extent different information treatments change inflation expectations and potentially feed through into prices and wages. The survey is conducted in German, French, Italian and English.

As this is a follow-up analysis which builds on a previous RCT (AEARCTR-0010464). The detailed econometric analysis and data cleaning process is described in the working paper: "Inflation Expectation Pass-Through into Prices and Wages: Evidence from an RCT Survey", (2024) with Klaus Abberger, Anne-Kathrin Funk, Michael Lamla, and Stefanie Siegrist, CEPR Discussion Paper No 19595
Experimental Design Details


Randomization Method
Randomization at login by computer. Random allocation to a treatment arm.
Randomization Unit
Firm level
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
The RCT has two treatment groups and one control group. Each treatment group has the same size (about 3333 firms each).
Sample size: planned number of observations
10000
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
3333
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
ETH Zurich Ethics Commission
IRB Approval Date
2025-08-05
IRB Approval Number
25 ETHICS-243
Analysis Plan

Analysis Plan Documents

Analysis Plan

MD5: 2dbbc544bc5395c736312a9f007adebf

SHA1: 50e834282b6054114ff859e545cc3be1e9de5d98

Uploaded At: September 15, 2025

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials