Firm inflation expectations, wage and price setting

Last registered on October 01, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Firm inflation expectations, wage and price setting
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016779
Initial registration date
September 15, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
September 15, 2025, 9:56 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
October 01, 2026, 11:58 AM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Country
Switzerland
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Michael Lamla
Affiliation
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Anne Kathrin Funk
PI Affiliation
Swiss National Bank
PI Name
Sarah Lein
PI Affiliation
University of Basel
PI Name
Klaus Abberger
PI Affiliation
ETH Zurich
PI Name
Stefanie Siegrist
PI Affiliation
ETH Zurich
PI Name
Chamuel Zbinden
PI Affiliation
Stockholm University

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2025-09-15
End date
2025-10-31
Keywords
Firms & Productivity
Additional Keywords
Monetary Economics, Inflation expectations, Wages, Prices
JEL code(s)
E24, E31, E52
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial is based on or builds upon one or more prior RCTs.
Abstract
In this study, we investigate the interaction of firms’ price- and wage-setting behavior and their inflation expectations. This wave is conducted to increase the general validity of our previous RCT and to control for additional aspects (e.g., cost expectations). In particular, we study how inflation expectations are passed through into prices and wages. While there is a broad theoretical consensus about the relevance of firms’ price-setting for inflation and economic activity, we know relatively little about how, and to what extent, firms build their inflation expectations into their prices and wages. We analyze these questions using a new firm-level RCT survey conducted in Switzerland. Switzerland provides an ideal setting, as it has a history of low and stable inflation and a flexible labour market with a low degree of wage indexation. Besides eliciting firm-specific variables and expectations about prices, wages and costs, we provide firms with information treatments and scenarios. Treatments in this study provide information on forecasts at different horizons. We hope to provide new insights into the role of expectations in firms’ decision-making.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Abberger, Klaus et al. 2026. "Firm inflation expectations, wage and price setting." AEA RCT Registry. October 01. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16779-1.3
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2025-09-15
Intervention End Date
2025-10-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
wage expectations 1 year ahead, price expectations 1 year ahead, inflation expectations, 1 year ahead and 5 years ahead, cost expectations 1 year ahead
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The survey participants are representatives from Swiss firms who are invited to participate in an online survey. The firms are sampled according to industry classification (NOGA) and size (by number of full-time employees).

In this online survey, we first elicit inflation expectations and firms’ expectations about their own wages and prices, in addition to collecting information about the firms’ price- and wage-setting processes. After this, firms are randomly assigned to groups that receive different information. The information provided is the Swiss National Bank’s most recent inflation forecast for the short run (one year ahead) and the medium run (three to five years ahead).

After the information treatment, participants are asked whether they would like to adjust their previously stated expectations in light of the information provided. We plan to study how price- and wage-setting behavior interacts with inflation expectations; how changes in inflation expectations are passed through into prices, wages and costs; and to what extent different information treatments change inflation expectations and potentially feed through into prices, wages and costs. The survey is conducted in German, French, Italian, and English.

As this is a follow-up analysis that builds on a previous RCT (AEARCTR-0010464), the detailed econometric analysis and data-cleaning process are described in the working paper “Inflation Expectation Pass-Through into Prices and Wages: Evidence from an RCT Survey” (2024) by Klaus Abberger, Anne-Kathrin Funk, Michael Lamla, and Stefanie Siegrist, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 19595.
Experimental Design Details


Randomization Method
Randomization at login by computer. Random allocation to a treatment arm.
Randomization Unit
Firm level
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
The RCT has two treatment groups and one control group. Each treatment group is the same size. The questionnaire has been sent to approximately 12500 firms.
Sample size: planned number of observations
The questionnaire has been sent to approximately 12500 firms. We have collected approximately 3900 responses.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
approx 1300
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
ETH Zurich Ethics Commission
IRB Approval Date
2025-08-05
IRB Approval Number
25 ETHICS-243
Analysis Plan

Analysis Plan Documents

Analysis Plan

MD5: 2dbbc544bc5395c736312a9f007adebf

SHA1: 50e834282b6054114ff859e545cc3be1e9de5d98

Uploaded At: September 15, 2025

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials