Randomized Evaluation of Delivering Resilient Enterprises and Market Systems (DREAMS) and Poverty Graduation program in Ethiopia

Last registered on October 27, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Randomized Evaluation of Delivering Resilient Enterprises and Market Systems (DREAMS) and Poverty Graduation program in Ethiopia
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0017102
Initial registration date
October 24, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
October 27, 2025, 8:55 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Kashif Ahmed
Affiliation
IDinsight
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Jeffery McManus
PI Affiliation
IDinsight
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PI Name
Jacob Gulinello
PI Affiliation
IDinsight
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PI Name
Alison Connor
PI Affiliation
IDinsight
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PI Name
Young Mkandawire
PI Affiliation
IDinsight
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PI Name
Calvin Mhango
PI Affiliation
IDinsight
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PI Name
Solomon Zena Walelign
PI Affiliation
Policy Innovation Research Center
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Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2022-09-01
End date
2026-12-31
Keywords
Firms & Productivity, Lab
Additional Keywords
Poverty, Refugees, Livelihoods, Resilience, Self-Reliance
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Forced displacement has left millions of refugees worldwide in protracted situations with limited economic opportunities. The Delivering Resilient Enterprises and Market Systems (DREAMS) program integrates poverty graduation and market systems development (MSD) to enhance refugee self-reliance by providing vulnerable households with business mentorship, savings groups, and market linkages. This study evaluates the impact of DREAMS on economic livelihoods, social cohesion, and perceived well-being in refugee and host communities in Dollo Ado, Ethiopia, a country with progressive refugee policies that allow for work permits and access to financial services. Using a household-level three-arm Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT), we assess the effects of the full integrated DREAMS program, the poverty graduation component alone, and a pure control group on key outcomes, including household consumption, asset accumulation, and women’s economic empowerment. This design allows us to isolate the incremental impact of the MSD component. Additionally, a complementary qualitative study explores the mechanisms driving impact and potential spillover effects. By integrating experimental and qualitative methods, this research provides rigorous evidence on the effectiveness and optimal structure of market-based interventions in displacement settings.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Ahmed, Kashif et al. 2025. "Randomized Evaluation of Delivering Resilient Enterprises and Market Systems (DREAMS) and Poverty Graduation program in Ethiopia." AEA RCT Registry. October 27. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17102-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
The Delivering Resilient Enterprises and Market Systems (DREAMS) program is a multi-year intervention that integrates poverty graduation (PG) and market systems development (MSD) to enhance the self-reliance of refugee and host community households. The program operates in the Dollo Ado region of Ethiopia.

The full DREAMS intervention provides a comprehensive package of support to vulnerable households, including:

Poverty Graduation: Households join 30-person Business Savings Groups (BSGs) and then form 3-person Business Groups (BGs). They receive training from a Business Mentor, ongoing coaching, and a seed capital grant (approx. $500/group) to start a microbusiness.

Market Systems Development (MSD): This component works to strengthen the broader market ecosystem. It includes direct market linkages through targeted "smart subsidies" (value chain vouchers) and intentional links to Private Sector Actors (PSAs) for inputs, bulking, and sales.

The study includes a separate "Poverty Graduation Alone" arm to isolate the added value of the MSD components.
Intervention Start Date
2023-11-01
Intervention End Date
2025-07-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The primary outcomes of interest in this study include household welfare and well-being, measured through total household consumption and asset value, and women's economic empowerment, assessed through financial decision-making power, control over business activities, and autonomy in household expenditures.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Household consumption will be constructed as the sum of expenditures on food, beverages, and temptation goods over the preceding seven days, recurrent expenditures (e.g., fuel, utilities, personal hygiene, and healthcare) over the past four weeks, and infrequent expenditures (e.g., social and religious events, clothing, taxes, education) over the past year. Asset value will be measured as the sum of durable goods, home improvements, productive assets, savings, and business capital minus outstanding liabilities. Women’s economic empowerment will be assessed using indicators of decision-making autonomy, participation in business operations, and perceptions of financial control.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
The study also examines social cohesion and community/market integration, access to humanitarian aid, focusing on trust between refugees and host communities, perceived security, participation in local economic activities, and interactions with market actors.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Social cohesion will be assessed through survey questions on trust between groups, perceived safety, and relationships within refugee and host communities. Market integration will be measured by household engagement with key market actors, participation in business networks, and access to financial products.

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The evaluation is a household-level Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) conducted across three cohorts (Cohorts 2-4) in the Helowein, Melkadida, and Kobe camps and surrounding host communities in Dollo Ado, Ethiopia.

Eligible households (most vulnerable based on the PPI) in each area were randomly assigned with equal probability to one of three arms:

1. DREAMS (Full Intervention)

2. Poverty Graduation Alone

3. Pure Control

This three-arm design allows for the rigorous comparison of the full integrated DREAMS model against the poverty graduation model alone, enabling the estimation of the incremental impact of the Market Systems Development (MSD) components. The full DREAMS intervention includes poverty graduation, smart subsidies, and targeted MSD linkages; the Poverty Graduation Alone arm excludes these specific MSD elements.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization was conducted using a computer. Households were assigned to treatment and control groups based on a stratified randomization approach, ensuring balance across refugee and host community populations.
Randomization Unit
Households were randomized at the individual household level, with stratification by refugee vs. host community status to allow for subgroup analyses.
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
This study is not clustered at a higher level beyond individual households. However, treatment effects will be examined across refugee settlements and host communities, and three cohorts and the areas in these cohorts.
Sample size: planned number of observations
The planned final sample size is 7,200 households.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
The total sample of 7,200 households is assigned equally across the three arms. DREAMS is 2400 households, Poverty Graduation Alone is 2400 households, and Control is 2400 households.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Accounting for sample design and clustering, the minimum detectable effect size for the main outcomes is: Combined treatment vs. control: 0.08 SD (for the combined sample) Single treatment vs. control: 0.09 SD (for the combined sample) Refugee Households (Combined treatment vs. control): 0.09 SD Host Households (Combined treatment vs. control): 0.14 SD. Assumptions: 15% attrition, 0.05 alpha, 0.8 power.
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Ethiopian Society of Sociologists, Social Workers, and Anthropologists
IRB Approval Date
2025-01-15
IRB Approval Number
ESSWA/L/AA/05902/2024
Analysis Plan

Analysis Plan Documents

Ethiopia Pre-Analysis Plan

MD5: 6ca4fb1cde6a391d561837082a3c3f72

SHA1: a2afae61013628a1f6d7a59a53f1d9123f312ef4

Uploaded At: October 24, 2025